Commentary There was much rejoicing last week as June’s headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) came in at 3 percent, the lowest level of overall price level growth since March 2021. Financial media declared that the United States has entered “disinflation mode” and that the season of post-pandemic inflation was nearing an end. The previously scorned…
Is Inflation Over? Ask Your Pocketbook
July 17, 2023
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Orange County Sales Tax Growth Slows Down at Midyear Mark
After growing at higher-than-expected rates for two years, Orange County’s sales tax collections slowed down the momentum at the midpoint of the year. Sales taxes are the largest revenue source for the county, covering nearly half the annual expenses. By the end of June, the county collected $117 million in sales tax revenue, almost the…
Why US Citizens Should Not Accept 3 Percent Inflation
July 17, 2023
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Business & Marketsconsumer price index (CPI)economic policieseconomyinflationOpinionS&P 500 indexUSViewpoints
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Commentary The recent University of Michigan survey’s reading of one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4 percent in July from 3.3 percent in June. The five-year outlook also increased to 3.1 percent from 3.0 percent in the previous month. There is a mainstream narrative that is spreading throughout the financial media: We must accept 3 percent…
Analysis-Bank of Canada Hones Messaging as Inflation Defies Forecasts
The Bank of Canada has shifted to a less prescriptive messaging strategy than it used in January when it signaled a rate-hike pause that reignited the housing market, which added to inflation and the need to resume tightening five months later. Last week after lifting rates to a 22-year high of 5.0%, Governor Tiff Macklem struck…
What Does It Mean to Have a Soft Landing?
July 17, 2023
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AnalysisBusiness & MarketsBusiness ColumnistseconomicsinflationOpinionrecessionsoft landingU.S. economy
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Commentary Economic language is packed with metaphors. It would be sunk without them. The economy is overheating. It’s depressed. It’s recessed. It’s hot. It’s cooling. It hit the skids. It’s in free fall. We’d better put on the brakes! Housing is underwater. This stock is headed to the moon. Inflation is easing. The Fed is…
Dollar Hovers Around 15-month Low as Traders Await Policy Decisions
LONDON/SYDNEY—The dollar edged lower on Monday against a basket of currencies after suffering its biggest weekly drop of the year as traders waited on economic data and policy decisions before selling it down any further. The euro continued climbing, rising 0.15 percent to hit a fresh 16-month high at $1.12440. Versus the yen the dollar…
Global Shares, Dollar Sag After China Data; Traders Bet on Fed Sea Change
July 17, 2023
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Business & MarketsCompanieseconomic policieseconomyenergyglobalGold and CommoditiesinflationMarketsrecessionstocks
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LONDON—Global shares and commodities slipped on Monday after data showed the Chinese economy is growing a lot more slowly than expected, while the dollar eased as traders ramped up their bets for an imminent end to U.S. rate rises. China reported economic growth of 0.8 percent in the second quarter, above the 0.5 percent forecasted,…
Tough Gauntlet Ahead for New Reserve Bank Chief
July 16, 2023
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AustraliaAustralian economyBusiness & Marketseconomic policiesinflationInternationalMichele BullockOpinionRBArecessionViewpointsWorld
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Commentary The job of Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) governor might be one to dodge at the moment, but having waited 38 years for the opportunity I guess new Governor Michele Bullock was not going to say no. There are a lot of challenges sitting in her in-tray from day one, including expansionary federal and…
Small-Business Optimism Rises, but Inflation Concerns Remain Persistent
July 14, 2023
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American small-business confidence slightly climbed to a seven-month high last month, but concerns about inflation remain persistent, according to a recent report. Pessimism over the U.S. economy diminished sharply, while sales expectations improved, but a persistently tight labor market is continuing to concern analysts about future inflation rates. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)…
Dollar Near 15-month Low as Easing US Inflation Fuels Rate Peak Bets
LONDON/SINGAPORE—The dollar hovered near a 15-month low on Friday and was set for its biggest weekly decline since November after softening U.S. inflation data fuelled investors’ bets that the Federal Reserve was close to the end of its rate hike cycle. U.S. producer prices barely rose in June and the annual increase in producer inflation…
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