Hotter-than-expected inflation data, including the so-called “core” measure of inflation surging to a fresh 40-year high, have sparked a sharp upward revision to investor expectations for how high the Fed will hike rates as it struggles to quell price pressures. Government data released on Oct. 13 showed that the annual “headline” rate of inflation edged…
Core Inflation Jumps to 40-Year High, Sending Fed Rate-Hike Bets Soaring
US Inflation Remains Persistently High at 8.2 Percent, Fueled by High Rent and Food Prices
The U.S. annual inflation rate came in at 8.2 percent in September, down from 8.3 percent in August as energy costs ease from their highs, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was higher than the market expectation of 8.1 percent. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index (CPI)…
Late Slide Sends Wall Street Lower in More Uncertain Trading
A wobbly day of trading on Wall Street ended with a modest pullback for stocks Wednesday as investors weighed a report showed that inflation remains very hot, likely paving the way for more aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. A late-afternoon drop erased tentative gains that the major stock indexes had been clinging…
Fed Expects Restrictive Policy of Higher Interest Rates for Longer: FOMC Minutes
October 12, 2022
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The Federal Reserve will eventually slow down the pace of interest rate hikes as officials assess the cumulative effects of monetary policy adjustments, according to minutes from the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released on Wednesday. However, the central bank reiterated its position that the Fed must adopt and maintain a restrictive…
Fed Pivot Is Not an Investment Thesis
Commentary In a recent Bloomberg article, a group of economists voiced their fears that the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight may create an unnecessarily deep downturn. However, the Federal Reserve doesn’t create a downturn due to rate hikes; it creates the foundations for a crisis by unnecessarily lowering rates into negative territory and aggressively increasing its…
US Auto Market Facing Lowest Sales in a Decade
October 8, 2022
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The auto sector, which had been struggling with depleted inventories during the pandemic, is now dealing with a sales crisis. Car sales have been softening this year because of inflation, weak consumer confidence, and growing concerns about the economy. Despite the fact that cars have become more widely available with supply chain bottlenecks easing, a…
Fed Governor Christopher Waller Sees Further Aggressive Rate Hikes in Inflation Battle
The U.S. Federal Reserve needs to keep raising interest rates into early next year to bring down stubbornly high inflation, Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday in a hawkish speech suggesting he sees little reason to ease the pace of Fed policy tightening. “Inflation is far from the FOMC’s goal and not likely to fall…
A Cautious Fed Sets Up ‘Stagflation’ After a ‘Just Right’ Jobs Report, No ‘Soft Landings’
October 7, 2022
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Business & MarketsBusiness Columnistseconomic policieseconomyFederal ReserveinflationjobsMarketspricesrecessionstagflationstocksUSUS News
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Commentary September jobs printed at 263,000 new jobs, somewhat above the consensus estimate of 250,000 jobs. That’s 52,000 fewer jobs than were created in August 2022 and 161 fewer jobs than September 2021. July revisions added another 11,000 jobs; August was unrevised. It is generally believed that 200,000–250,000 jobs are required to accommodate population growth. The unemployment rate was…
On the Path to Hyperinflation
October 7, 2022
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Commentary I have had a series of conversations lately on how did we, the world, get to this point? I think that it’s a valid question, considering how well things were in the 1990s after the Soviet Union had collapsed. The really interesting follow-up question is: Has this deterioration been a series of mere random…
US Economy Adds 263,000 New Jobs in September as Labor Market Conditions Soften
The U.S. economy added 263,000 new jobs in September, down from an upwardly revised print of 537,000 in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The market had forecast 250,000 new jobs last month. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent, down from 3.7 percent in August. This came in line with economists’…
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