Commentary With inflation in the headlines, a look back at the last experience might offer needed perspective. There is no claim here that history repeats exactly. Rather a look back offers ways to dispel nonsense and identify what is important. The Arab oil embargo of 1973 dominates most references to the last great inflation. No…
Inflation and Supply Chains: Saying Goodbye to 2021, Looking to 2022
The world is turning the page on 2021 and welcoming 2022, leading to an assessment of the last 12 months and looking ahead to the next 365 days. Over the last year, the economy was dominated by a handful of developments: inflation, a global supply chain crisis, the Delta and Omicron variants, trillions in fiscal…
US Manufacturing Activity Ticks Up in November: ISM Report
The U.S. manufacturing sector in November is showing strong production growth as factories continue to struggle with pandemic-related shortages of raw materials and labor, along with inflation, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The ISM’s December report shows that the index of national factory activity rose from 60.8 in October to a reading of 61.1…
Supply Chain Problems and Prospects
Commentary President Joe Biden blames inflation on supply chain problems. He has assured the American people that since supply problems will lift soon so will inflation pressures. He is wrong on both counts. The inflation reflects more than supply chain problems, but even if it were just supply matters, they will persist longer than he…
The United States Has an Inflation Problem
Commentary While Beijing pretends that China’s debt problems are manageable, Washington pretends that the country’s building inflation problem will simply go away. The leadership of each country is kidding itself. This column has already described the dangers in China’s debt problems. America’s inflation presents dangers of a different kind. The data make it painfully clear…
US Slightly Revises up Its GDP Estimate for Q2 to 6.7 Percent
WASHINGTON—The U.S. economy expanded at a 6.7 percent annual pace from April through June, the Commerce Department said Thursday, slightly upgrading its estimate of last quarter’s growth in the face of a resurgence of COVID-19 in the form of the delta variant. The government’s estimate of growth in the second quarter—its last of three—was up…
The Looming Economic Bubble
Commentary There has been considerable discussion in the last couple of months about the rate of inflation in the United States, and polls now show that 85 percent of Americans are concerned about inflation. This is a demonstration once again of the wisdom of the average person. While the United States, and to a lesser…
Long China, Short US—the Volatility!
Commentary The worse than expected U.S. purchasing managers index (PMI) released days ago seems to suggest the economy is indeed slowing down. But wait. The manufacturing PMI still stood near 60, a level which was never reached between mid-2004 and end-2017. In fact, the recent high near 65 has never been seen since 1983. Even…
US Durable Goods Orders Rise 2.3 Percent in May
WASHINGTON—Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods rose for the 12th time in the last 13 months in May, pulled up by surge in demand for civilian aircraft. The Commerce Department said Thursday that orders for durable goods—meant to last at least three years—climbed 2.3 percent in May, reversing a 0.8 percent drop in…
US Jobless Claims Tick Down to 411,000 as Economy Heals
WASHINGTON—The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits dropped last week, a sign that layoffs declined and the job market is improving. The Labor Department said Thursday that jobless claims declined just 7,000 from the previous week to 411,000. The number of weekly applications for unemployment aid has fallen steadily this year from about 900,000…
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