Commentary The ability of the United States to extend deterrence to key allies like Australia and Japan, and to partners like Taiwan, depends upon two considerations. First, there are political considerations, which include the credibility of the United States to honor its commitments and willpower to incur the risks inherent in providing another state the…
Biden’s National Security Documents Risk US National Security
October 29, 2022
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biden administrationdeterrenceMissile Defense Review (MDR)National Defense Strategy (NDS)Nuclear Posture Review (NPR)OpinionThinking About China
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Europe’s Green Future Is Cold and Dark
Commentary In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, European Union (E.U.) nations are scrambling to source fossil fuels to run their factories and heat their homes this winter. They vigorously boycotted Russian natural gas and levied sanctions, you’ll recall, as a way of punishing Russia for its evil warring ways. The Thrill of…
Xi Jinping’s Rise Could Be the Beginning of the End for Communist China
Commentary It was supposed to be a crowning moment for Chinese Communist Party boss Xi Jinping. The once-every-five-years national congress of party poohbahs would formally extend his tenure beyond two five-years terms—a coronation set in motion at the last congress in 2017 when party leaders ditched the custom of identifying an eventual successor. Xi would…
The USA Versus China and Saudi Arabia
Commentary For decades, Saudi Arabia has allied with the United States based on the exchange of oil for security. The Saudis pump when the oil price gets too high, and America promises to come to Saudi Arabia’s defense when, for example, Iraq or Iran start lobbing missiles. Thus, America never sinks too far into oil-starved…
Xi’s Speech and PLA Modernization: No Surprises
October 27, 2022
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Fourth Industrial RevolutionOpinionPeople’s Liberation Army (PLA)securityThinking About ChinaXi Jinping
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Commentary They used to say that when you stayed at a Holiday Inn the big surprise was no surprise. You pretty much knew what to expect and you usually got it. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was the “Holiday Inn” of CCP political happenings. We knew what was going to…
Xi Jinping’s Face Assassination of Hu Jintao Is a Strategic Warning for America
October 27, 2022
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CCPChinese Communist Partyface assassinationHu JintaoOpinionThinking About ChinaViewpointsXi Jinping
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Commentary Former Chinese leader Hu Jintao’s peculiar exit from the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) congress meeting on Oct. 22 has ignited global discussion and intense speculation. And given current leader Xi Jinping’s war-waging aims, well it should. By now tens of millions of people have seen at least part of Hu’s departure video. My summary:…
Biden Ups the Ante With China
Commentary If Donald Trump first made clear that China is a competitor, not a partner, as was previously claimed, the Biden administration has escalated the contest tremendously. Trump began the change in U.S. policy when in 2018 he imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese goods and demanded that Beijing alter its trade practices. In more recent…
Descent Into Totalitarianism
Commentary What does the removal of Hu Jintao from the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) mean for China going forward? It means quite a lot. Xi Has a Long Memory First, it’s important to understand that Xi Jinping and Hu Jintao share a history that goes back decades. Hu was Xi’s…
Yuan Depreciation Won’t Help China Exports
October 26, 2022
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Business & MarketsChinaChina Business & Economydepreciationexchange rateHong KongOpinionThinking About Chinayuan
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Commentary The latest China data continue to show an overall downtrend, although some rebound is seen. The domestic economy, as represented by internal demand (private and government consumption expenditure and investment), remains weak under deleveraging (paying off debts). One possible way to improve the situation is to rely on external demand, which is net exports….
On Closing China’s Secret Police Stations Overseas
Commentary Few people could have missed the revelation from Safeguard Defenders that local Chinese police are running overseas police “service stations.” Over the last month, local media has been investigating the illegal centers, and more and more remarkable information is being revealed weekly. The latest such revelation is the existence of additional stations in Canada,…
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