Commentary Total nonfarm payroll employment, relased this morning, increased by 209,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.6 percent. Just 149,000 of those jobs were in the private sector; 60,000 were in government. Revisions from April and May resulted in 110,000 fewer jobs than originally reported for those two months. That’s the…
Jobs Prints Lower Than Expected, Core Inflation Remains Stubborn
July 7, 2023
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ANALYSIS: US Economy Flirting With Stagflation as Prices Remain High While Economy Slows Down
June 21, 2023
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As the American economy continues to struggle with high inflation and weak economic growth, concerns about the country slipping into a stagflation are popping up. Stagflation is an economic cycle marked by slow GDP growth, high inflation, and high unemployment rate. Policymakers usually find it difficult to handle such a situation because any attempt to…
Is Inflation the New Normal?
Commentary Today finally ends the federal state of emergency for COVID. Along with that ends the terrible travel restrictions that have stopped the unvaccinated from visiting the land of the free. It seems incredible that we could ever become used to this. But it happened. And it went on for three years. This should serve…
Stagflation Is a ‘Real Risk’ Facing American Economy Now: Former Treasury Secretary
Former Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers sees a “real risk” of stagflation in the U.S. economy and believes the Federal Reserve committed a mistake by not recognizing inflation earlier on. In an April 20 podcast with journalist Kara Swisher, Summers was asked about economist Mohamed El-Erian’s warning that the crisis triggered by the collapse of Silicon…
Trifecta of Inflation, Recession, and Banking Insolvency Leading to a ‘Doom Loop’: Economist
April 4, 2023
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Decades-high persistent inflation combined with increasing risks of an economic recession and an imminent insolvency crisis in the banking sector have resulted in a “trilemma” facing central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, warns top economist Nouriel Roubini. “Unable to fight inflation and provide liquidity support simultaneously, the only solution is a severe recession—and thus…
2023: The Year of Stagflation
Commentary After more than $20 trillion in stimulus plans since 2020, the economy is going into stagnation with elevated inflation. Global governments announced more than $12 trillion in stimulus measures in 2020 alone and central banks bloated their balance sheets by $8 trillion. The result was disappointing and with long-lasting negative effects: a weak recovery,…
5 Principles of Stagflation
December 8, 2022
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Commentary Stagflation is the combination of slow or falling economic output plus high inflation. For nearly two years, we’ve been stuck in this pattern and it still feels confusing. Prices for many items like cars and homes have whipsawed around in strange ways, up one month and down the next only to repeat the pattern….
Maybe the Fed Too Was Trolled
November 12, 2022
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Commentary The Federal Reserve—and central banks the world over—played a crucial role in making lockdowns possible and weaponizing the panic of politicians. As the lender of last resort and the provider of liquidity for the entire federal government, it removes normal fiscal restraint. It writes checks that cannot bounce to fuel governments in normal times…
What It Means for Inflation to Be Embedded
News Analysis Every economic news release these days is an exercise in downplaying disaster. The bureau in question carefully crafts the results announcement, and the media picks up on it, spinning the bad news as good news. It seems to happen every time, such as with the terrible jobs report last week that somehow got…
Major Hedge Fund Warns of Something Worse Than Inflation or Stagflation as Central Bankers Have Been ‘Dishonest’
Florida-based hedge fund Elliott Management recently warned clients in a letter obtained by media outlets that the world is “on the path to hyperinflation” and a financial crisis so severe that it could even lead to societal collapse. The letter, as reported by the Financial Times and Business Insider, urged clients to remain vigilant as the…
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