Category: recession

Finance Sector Braces for Shockwaves After Silicon Valley Bank Collapse

It took only 48 hours for Silicon Valley Bank to become the nation’s second-largest bank failure. The company’s problems started on Wednesday when the financial institution informed investors that it needed to generate $2.25 billion to cover an unexpected decline in deposits and improve its balance sheet and overall financial position. In a letter to…


The Collapse of SVB Portends Real Dangers

Commentary Thus far in this 3-year fiasco of mismanagement and corruption, we’ve avoided a financial crisis. That’s for specific reasons. We just had not traveled there in the trajectory of the inevitable. Are we there yet? Maybe. In any case, the speed of change is accelerating. All we await is to observe the extent of…


Jobs Prints at 311,000, but Economy Still on Track for Recession in Third Quarter 2023

Commentary New jobs created printed at 311,000 on Mar. 10, according to the Establishment Survey, far exceeding market expectations of 205,000 jobs. The Household Survey printed lower at 150,000. Net revisions were down 34,000 from December and January. The overwhelming majority of jobs were in the lower-wage sector, and job losses occurred in some of…


No Recession: Is the Consensus View Wrong?

Commentary Could the consensus view of a “no recession” scenario be wrong? As portfolio managers, this is the question we ask ourselves daily. Since the lows of last October, the technical backdrop has improved markedly, as discussed last week in “Bear Trap.” To wit: “Our most critical bullish signals are the short- and intermediate-term moving…


BOJ Keeps Low Rates as Kuroda Sticks to Script at Swan Song Meeting

TOKYO—The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained ultra-low interest rates on Friday and held off making changes to its controversial bond yield control policy, leaving options open ahead of a leadership transition in April. Though widely expected by most analysts, the decision sent the yen and local bond yields tumbling as some investors unwound bets that…


Did Generous Pandemic-Era Benefits Reduce Labor Force Participation?

Experts say and studies suggest that generous federal pandemic unemployment benefits reduced the U.S. labor participation rate, contributing to business difficulties in finding workers. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) noted a decline in the workforce participation rate through 2021. The BLS cited a study released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, “Has the Willingness to Work…


US Weekly Jobless Claims Post Largest Rise in 5 Months; Labor Market Still Tight

WASHINGTON—The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased by the most in five months last week, but the underlying trend remained consistent with a tight labor market. Part of the larger-than-expected rise in claims reported by the Labor Department on Thursday reflected a surge in applications in New York state, which some…


Dollar Steady as Volatile Markets Brace for Payroll Data, Yen Slides

SINGAPORE/LONDON—The dollar index was steady on Friday, a rare spot of calm in volatile global markets ahead of key U.S. payrolls data later in the day, while the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan kept stimulus settings steady. The dollar jumped as much as 0.63 percent against the yen, a knee-jerk move after the…


Oil Prices Set for 5 Percent Weekly Drop on US Rate Hike Jitters

LONDON—Oil fell for a fourth session on Friday, heading for its biggest weekly loss in five weeks on worries about the prospect of steep interest rate hikes in the United States hitting fuel demand. Brent dipped 41 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $81.18 a barrel by 0852 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was…


Global Stocks, Wall Street Futures Sink Ahead of US Jobs Update

BEIJING—Global stock markets and Wall Street futures fell Friday ahead of a U.S. job market update amid unease about possible further interest rate hikes. Markets in London, Shanghai, Frankfurt, and Tokyo declined. Oil prices were lower. Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 index fell Thursday by its biggest one-day margin this year after Federal Reserve Chair…