All eyes this week will be on the April inflation report. Will it continue its downward trend, or will the consumer price index (CPI) continue to be stubborn and sticky? The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Inflation Nowcasting is penciling in an annual inflation rate of 5.2 percent, which would be up from 5 percent…
The Fed Has Been Raising Rates, But What’s Next?
April 21, 2023
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On March 22, 2023, the Federal Reserve raised the target fed funds rate from 4.75 to 5.00 percent. This marked a 475 bps increase in interest rates since March 2022. With the Fed’s next planned meeting scheduled for May 2023, many are wondering if the Fed will continue the trend of aggressive rate hikes, keep…
Recession Looms as 5 Percent CPI Provides No Relief
Commentary The rising cost of living, tightening credit, slowing consumer spending, along with declining real wages and retrenchment in the jobs market, are each conspiring and threatening to move the U.S. economy into recession later this year. Despite lower headline Consumer Price Index (CPI), inflation is still taking its toll on American families. Just released…
Is This Finally Some Tolerable Inflation News?
April 13, 2023
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Commentary For reasons I don’t get, the whole of financial markets is obsessed with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) but the Producer Price Index (PPI) is largely ignored. It hardly makes the headlines. That makes no sense because everything we consume (except maybe bugs) has to be produced. The consumer experience of inflation is downstream…
US Annual Inflation Rate Slows to Lowest Level Since May 2021
The U.S. annual inflation rate eased to 5.0 percent in March, down from 6.0 percent in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This came in below economists’ expectations of 5.2 percent. On a month-over-month basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1 percent, down from 0.4 percent. The core inflation rate, which…
Inflation Falls Sharpest in February Since Covid Recession
Inflation in Canada saw a sharp deceleration in the month of February to reach a 5.2 percent year-over-year increase compared to 5.9 percent in January. This was the largest drop since April 2020, the month after stock markets reached rock bottom due to the pandemic recession. Statistics Canada says that despite inflation slowing in recent…
US Inflation Eases to 6 Percent, Lowest Level Since September 2021
The U.S. annual inflation rate eased to 6 percent in February, down from 6.4 percent in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This matched economists’ expectations and is the lowest reading since September 2021. The core consumer price index (CPI), which strips the volatile food and energy sectors, slowed to 5.5 percent,…
Inflation Cannot Hide on Amazon Prime
I have often heard it said that the first step in recovery from addiction is to admit that one has a problem. Well, I’m not afraid to admit that over the years I’ve become completely dependent on Amazon Prime for the vast majority of my grocery and household goods shopping. If it’s not something fresh…
Inflation Has Returned
Commentary After some encouraging news last summer and fall, many began anticipating a quick end to the economy’s inflation problem. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell even suggested that he might not have been so wrong in 2021 when he declared the inflationary pressure “transitory.” The news from January contradicts this optimism. The Labor Department…
Will the Federal Reserve Hit Its Year-End Inflation Target?
Commentary After driving inflation to double-digits, the Federal Reserve has been adamant about monetary restraint to restore price stability. Can the Fed succeed? If so, at what cost? Further, what needs to be watched to conclude the Fed is achieving its objective? What must occur to conclude the Fed has succeeded? The answers depends on…
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