Commentary Everybody loves to see egg all over the faces of experts, but the blowout of the Wall Street consensus forecasting 190,000 new jobs for January by an actual number of 517,000 was more yolk than anyone bargained for. The favored media meme is that unemployment, which was supposed to go up, is instead at…
Headline Jobs Is a Blowout, but Fed Likely to Resume Hikes Longer or Higher
Commentary The January jobs report Establishment Survey showed that the economy added 517,000 new jobs, wildly beyond the consensus estimate of 185,000 jobs. Net revisions for November and Decembber resulted in an additional 71,000 more jobs for the last three months. (It is generally believed that 200,000–250,000 jobs are required to accommodate population growth.) The…
Outsourcing Investment or Taking More Risk?
Commentary In 2022, the S&P 500 Index returned -19.64 percent. If you run the same numbers and include dividend reinvestment, the sting was a little less, with a return of -18.32 percent. Not great, for sure. Those kinds of returns have people asking questions about how they are invested. To be clear, if you get a return of…
The Management Racket Is Ending
February 2, 2023
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Business & MarketsBusiness Columnistsemploymentjob openingslayoffsmanagementOpinionunemploymentViewpoints
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Commentary When I was 15, I had a wonderful time working at a local fish restaurant. I was a busboy and dishwasher and super proud of my job. Scrubbing pots and wiping down tables was a job of enormous responsibility. Leaving grease and sticky stuff on plates and seats was a sure way to drive…
Why Credit and Inflation Are Highly Uncertain
Commentary U.S. inflation is coming down, but there are various reasons for this. Market analysts tend to follow the majority of views that the overall number is lowered by energy-related items. Official academics like those working for the Fed tend to find evidence for supply-side arguments. They employ the old structural equation models to decompose…
Tech Layoffs Reflect Growing Frustration With Social Media, Industry Analysts Say
News Analysis The massive layoffs that have rocked the tech sector in recent days have become the subject of widespread speculation in the mainstream media, with some industry and media sources attributing the firings and announced staff cuts to adverse economic factors, such as inflation and interest rate hikes. But the real reasons go much…
Is Timekettle a National Security Threat?
February 1, 2023
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Business & MarketsBusiness ColumnistsOpinionSpyThinking About ChinaTimekettletranslateWireless Earbuds
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Commentary Republicans and Democrats don’t agree on much. However, when the idea of a special House committee designed to focus on China was put forward, it received bipartisan support. That’s because concerns over communist China’s influence on and in the United States are at an all-time high. NBC News reported last year that Chinese spying…
The Fed and the Great Pillaging
February 1, 2023
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Business & MarketsBusiness ColumnistsFederal ReserveinflationOpinionquantitative tighteningrecessionU.S. economyViewpoints
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Commentary There are many ways to measure the amount of dollars that exist today but let’s choose M2 because it seems most reliable for now. There are now 21.3 trillion dollars extant. That’s $6 trillion more than existed just three years ago. For perspective, the entire USD money stock just ten years ago was $6…
China and the World Trade Organization: A Misbegotten Alliance
Commentary On Dec. 11, 2001, China became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This would have been impossible without American support. In retrospect, it was one of the worst decisions we ever made. To be clear, the United States supported China’s membership in the WTO and other international organizations based on its supposed…
Car Wars—Yet Another Threat From Beijing
Commentary Early this month it was reported that a security sweep discovered hidden inside a British government vehicle used to transport senior officials and diplomats a SIM card that can track and transmit long-term movements; the device was located within a sealed part imported from China. Due to warranty terms and commercial agreements the parts…
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