Commentary Economic language is packed with metaphors. It would be sunk without them. The economy is overheating. It’s depressed. It’s recessed. It’s hot. It’s cooling. It hit the skids. It’s in free fall. We’d better put on the brakes! Housing is underwater. This stock is headed to the moon. Inflation is easing. The Fed is…
What Does It Mean to Have a Soft Landing?
July 17, 2023
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Biden, Social Media Collude to Suppress Speech
Commentary Of all the ways in which we exercise our freedom in America, the exchange of information without the interference of government may be the most indispensable. One can imagine times when the federal government is entitled to keep news or views from the American people; perhaps knowledge of a major defeat of our forces…
Office Space: More Trouble
Commentary Commercial real estate faces increasing headwinds. Delinquency rates, especially for office buildings, have spiked and show signs of climbing still higher. Both developers and lenders are set to lose. The pain is passing through to those who hold bonds backed by commercial mortgages, the so-called commercial mortgage bond securities (CMBS). There is little sign…
It’s Price Rather Than Amount or Flow of Money That Matters
Commentary The nightmare for the central bank is not high inflation by itself but when high inflation is not responsive to tightening measures. As an example, we can look at the situation in the UK. The accompanying chart shows that the UK has broad money (M4) growing year-over-year (YoY) at zero percent, down from the…
Beijing Counters Washington
July 11, 2023
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Beijing and Washington seem to have entered a tit-for-tat competition on trade. Late last year, the Biden administration placed restrictions on the export to China of equipment for the manufacture of advanced semiconductors and at the same time announced subsidies for the domestic manufacture of semiconductors. Washington even got Japan and the Netherlands to join…
Big Business’s Not-So-Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations
Commentary There are those who are convinced that the United States is incurably racist. Last week’s U.S. Supreme Court decision ending once and for all the explicit consideration of race in college admissions exposed entrenched racism within this country’s society all right. But it turns out that where it is found is in an unholy…
The Fed’s Conundrum Continues: How Many More Rate Rises?
July 10, 2023
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Commentary We’re squarely in the dog days of summer, which in Hellenistic astrology is connected to bad luck, lethargy, and, of course, hot and humid weather. These are the days when economists and market watchers would love to shut down and go away for the summer. But for Chair Jerome Powell and the U.S. Federal…
Jobs Prints Lower Than Expected, Core Inflation Remains Stubborn
July 7, 2023
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Commentary Total nonfarm payroll employment, relased this morning, increased by 209,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.6 percent. Just 149,000 of those jobs were in the private sector; 60,000 were in government. Revisions from April and May resulted in 110,000 fewer jobs than originally reported for those two months. That’s the…
The Fed Is Doing the Worst Job Ever by Abusing Discretion
Commentary Although inflation has been falling in most of the advanced economies, the rates haven’t reached the targeted values. All central bankers claim success but don’t know when their rate hikes will successfully control inflation. This uncertainty refers not just to the long-term but to the lack of any forecasting in the lead-up to the…
China’s New Anti-Espionage Law Poses Risks for Foreign Businesses
July 6, 2023
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Commentary Under the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) new anti-spying law, normal business activities may be considered spying, resulting in foreigners being banned from entering or exiting China. China’s revised Counter-Espionage Law, which went into effect on July 1, prohibits the transfer of information related to national security while also expanding the definition of national security….
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