The jobs market is too strong, and the unemployment rate too low for the Reserve Bank to stamp down inflation. RBA deputy governor Michele Bullock says an unemployment rate of around 4.5 percent is roughly the lowest possible level that’s consistent with the RBA’s two-to-three per cent inflation target. The jobless rate has been stuck…
RBA Says Jobs Market Too Tight to Control Inflation
June 20, 2023
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Is the Jobs Market Strong?
Commentary Not too long ago, talk of recession dominated the financial headlines. Much of the flow of economic information still points in that direction. The dramatic interest rate increases orchestrated by the Federal Reserve (Fed) count as one such consideration, as does sluggish consumer spending and a clear reluctance by businesses to spend on new…
Shred the White Collar and Put on the Blue
May 17, 2023
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Commentary In 1936, John Maynard Keynes, who was the most influential economist of the 20th century, wrote in his popular treatise (“The General Theory”) of his ultimate solution for permanent growth and high employment without business cycles. He called for the government to drive interest rates to zero. This would spur massive borrowing and then…
The Economic Upheaval Has Just Begun
March 7, 2023
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Commentary This weekend, a good man who owns a landscaping business came up to the microphone during a question and answer period following my speech at an event. He posed a simple but sincere question. He has endless demands for his services. He has all the capital he needs. He has a thriving business with…
Strong Jobs Report Revives Fears of Inflation and More Aggressive Fed
February 3, 2023
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Positive jobs reports can be bad news for the market. The latest strong jobs report, for example, revived Wall Street fears of continued inflation and a more aggressive Federal Reserve as markets were volatile on the news. Stocks opened lower following the jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, with a brief rally…
European Shadow Unemployment Is a Real Dilemma
Commentary The latest jobs report in the United States shows strengths and weaknesses. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in December, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent. However, the U.S. job market continues to show negative real wage growth, the employment-to-population ratio is 60.1 percent, and the labor force participation rate is…
What’s Driving the Labor Market Mess?
July 22, 2022
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Commentary A small business owner with whom I was speaking raised an odd point. He has many jobs open right now and advertises them. Many people apply and he clicks through on the online portal to offer interviews. Then something odd happens. He never hears from them. Maybe they took some other position. That’s what…
Can the Jobs Market Withstand Economic Gloom?
News Analysis The U.S. economy added a surprisingly strong 372,000 jobs in June. Many concluded that calls of a recession were greatly exaggerated after seeing the red-hot jobs report. But despite the solid employment recovery, some observers are skeptical that the jobs market is as healthy as the government portrays. The main concern is that…
Record Numbers of Chinese Graduates Enter Worst Job Market in Decades
June 24, 2022
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BEIJING—Jenny Bai was among 10 high-performing computer science students from different Chinese universities selected by a Beijing-based internet firm for a job upon graduation, following four rounds of arduous interviews. But last month, the company told the students their contract offers were cancelled due to COVID-19 headwinds and the bad state of the economy in…
A Small but Emerging Trend in the Jobs Market: ‘I Quit! I’ve Made Enough Money on Crypto’
Cryptocurrencies have all rallied strongly in October, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) among the majors hitting all-time highs. These decentralized currencies are also having an impact on macroeconomic variables, according to a new survey. What Happened About 4 percent of the people surveyed said they have—or know of someone—who quit their jobs at some…
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